Atlanat Motor Speedway - The Kobalt Tooll's 500 (News & Notes)

[HacheMan]

The Kobalt Tool's 500
The NASCAR Sprint Cup Series moves to the uber-fast Atlanta Motor Speedway for the fourth race of the 2010 season, the Kobalt Tool's 500. NASCAR expert Brian Brown looked at past performances, season trends, and spoke to team contacts to provide the internet's most accurate projection of how the field will finish.


When: Sunday, March 7, 2010; 1:16 p.m./et


Weather: Partly cloudy with a high around 60; wind out of the WSW at 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 20%.


The Track: Atlanta Motor Speedway

Atlanta Motor Speedway is a very wide 1.5 mile oval. It has 24 degree banking on the corners. Due to the fast surface and steep banking it is known as the fastest track on the NASCAR circuit.


Key to Race: CAN ANYONE STOP J.J.?

Jimmie Johnson is so automatic that the rest of the NASCAR is happy just to finish behind him. He has had past success at ATL and is going to need to make a bad mistake in the pits not to win. Carl Edwards and the Busch Brothers also have had recent success at the track but we predict J.J. will be parked in Victory Lane when the race is over.


Qualifying Procedures:

46 cars will attempt to qualify for 43 spots. Starting positions 1-43 will be determined by qualifying on Friday, March 5 at 6:10 pm/et. Cars that were in the top 35 in owner's points following the 2009 season are guaranteed a spot in the race.


Fantasy Cheat Sheet:

Top 5

No. 48 Jimmie Johnson: Johnson has visited Victory Lane in two of the past six Atlanta races. We think the only way he doesn't take the checkers this weekend is if his team makes a mistake in the pits.
No. 99 Carl Edwards: In 10 career starts at Atlanta, Edwards has finished in the top seven an impressive nine times. He won the fall 2008 race at the track and is one of our favorites to win on Sunday.

No. 24 Jeff Gordon: Gordon has four career wins in the ATL and has finished in the top 10 in 18 of the last 22 races at the track. He will be strong once again this weekend.
No. 9 Kasey Kahne: Kahne has five top five finishes in 12 career races at Atlanta, including a win at the track in September. He is a great choice.
No. 29 Kevin Harvick: Harvick finally seemed to figure Atlanta out the past four races. He has been awesome this season and should be very fast on Sunday.


6 to 10

No. 2 Kurt Busch: Busch dominated last year's March race in Atlanta. He is a great choice again this weekend.
No. 17 Matt Kenseth: Kenseth has 11 top 10 finishes in 20 starts at Atlanta. The No. 17 will be very good on Sunday.
No. 14 Tony Stewart: Stewart won the October 2006 race at Atlanta and has 13 top 10 finishes in 22 starts at the track. He should be in the top 10 once again.
No. 18 Kyle Busch: Busch's won at ATL in March of 2008. He should be back inside the top 10 this weekend.
No. 33 Clint Bowyer: Bowyer finished sixth in four of the past six races at Atlanta. The way he is driving lately he should have the No. 33 inside the top 10 once again.


11 to 20

No. 5 Mark Martin: Martin has run over 13,300 laps at Atlanta Motor Speedway in his career. The veteran will put all the experience to good use on Sunday.
No. 16 Greg Biffle: Biffle has been terrible in three of the last six ATL races and great in the other three. His inconsistency at the track bumps him just outside our top 10.
No. 11 Denny Hamlin: Hamlin has just three top 10 finishes in 10 career starts in the ATL. He should finish in the top 15, but we don't see a top 10 finish for the No. 11 team.
No. 20 Joey Logano: Logano has been very impressive so far this season. If you didn't grab him last week like we advised it may be too late.
No. 83 Brian Vickers: Vickers has been great in four of the past five Atlanta races. He is worth using again this weekend.
No. 88 Dale Earnhardt Jr.: Junior has 10 top 10 finishes in the last 17 races at Atlanta. He will be a top 16 finisher this visit, but we don't like his chances to finish much faster than that.
No. 31 Jeff Burton: Burton has driven well in almost every race at Atlanta since 2004. He should have the No. 31 car in the top 20 once again.
No. 42 Juan Pablo Montoya: Montoya has had one great race, one good race, one mediocre race, and three bad races at ATL during his career. This is a rare weekend we don't highly recommend J.P.
No. 39 Ryan Newman: Newman is the maestro of qualifying at Atlanta. In the 16 races he has run at the speedway he has started from the pole seven times. We like him to challenge for the pole and he should finish inside the top 20.
No. 00 David Reutimann: Reutimann finished fourth at Atlanta last September. He has been driving great and should have a problem finishing inside the top 20.


21 to 30

No. 1 Jamie McMurray: McMurray has averaged a 20th place finish in 14 career starts at Atlanta. We see him taking the checkers around there again.
No. 56 Martin Truex Jr.: Truex has a top 15 driver rating at ATL the past four years. He could be a bit of a sleeper pick on Sunday.
No. 43 A.J. Allmendinger: Allmendinger has cracked the top 20 in each of his career ATL starts. He is a nice sleeper pick this weekend.
No. 47 Marcos Ambrose: The Tasmanian Devil will have the No. 47 back inside the top 25.
No. 6 David Ragan: The Georgia native should just barely be a top 25 finisher.
No. 82 Scott Speed: Speed has been terrific this season. If you need someone to round out your roster there are much worse choices.
No. 19 Elliott Sadler: Sadler has never been great at Atlanta, but he will be good enough this weekend to crack the top 30.
No. 77 Sam Hornish Jr.: Hornish Jr. has struggled at Atlanta, but he should finish inside the top 30
No. 12 Brad Keselowski: Keselowski has struggled a bit since taking over the No. 12 car. We can't recommend him until he shows he is more comfortable in the ride.
No. 21 Bill Elliott: If you are looking for an extreme bargain driver this weekend Awesome Bill from Dawsonville is your man. Elliott is a five time winner at Atlanta and knows the track better than any driver in the race.


31 to 35

No. 7 Robby Gordon: Atlanta has never been one of Gordon's better tracks, but he should be good enough to finish in the top 35.
No. 98 Paul Menard: Menard hasn't been terrible in the past at Atlanta, but we don't like his chances this weekend.
No. 78 Regan Smith: Smith is quietly ranked in the top 25 in the point standings. The season is still very, very young.
No. 13 Max Papis: Papis will have the No. 13 in the race.
No. 34 Travis Kvapil: Kvapil is higher in the point standings right now than Ryan Newman, Brad Keselowski, and Marcos Ambrose…just saying.


Field Fillers

No. 26 Boris Said
No. 09 Aric Almirola
No. 71 Bobby Labonte
No. 90 Casey Mears
No. 87 Joe Nemechek
No. 55 Michael McDowell
No. 36 Mike Bliss
No. 37 Kevin Conway
No. 38 David Gilliland
No. 46 Terry Cook
No. 66 Dave Blaney


Brownie's Picks

Top Four:

1. Jimmie Johnson
2. Carl Edwards
3. Jeff Gordon
4. Kasey Kahne

Sleepers:

1. Martin Truex Jr.
2. Brian Vickers

Bust of the Week:

Ryan Newman

 

[HacheMan]

The Kobalt Tools 500
Track history: Fireball Roberts earned just $10,130 for winning the 1960 Dixie 300, the first race at Atlanta Motor Speedway (AMS). The purse for all the drivers totaled $39,000. Opened in July 1960, AMS was one of the best of the new superspeedways being built all over at the time. This 1.54-mile oval is the fastest track the Cup guys compete on and is the one they fear the most. Since it is not a "restrictor plate" track and speeds top 200 mph at the end of the backstretch, drivers know if they find the wall here, they will definitely know it. The good thing about not having restrictor plates is the cars will be spread out and wrecks like the "Big One" wrecks at Daytona and Talladega aren't usually a concern at Atlanta. Bruton Smith purchased the Speedway in 1990 and has spent over $100 million improving the facility, including the nine-story structure that houses the corporate offices of AMS as well as 46 luxury condos. Recent additions also include a road course and over 53,000 more seats giving AMS a total capacity of 124,000 seats. In 1997, at a cost of $30 million, the start/finish line was moved from the south side of the track to the north side, and the configuration of the Hampton, Ga. facility changed from a 1.522- mile oval to a 1.54-mile quad-oval similar to Lowe's and Texas Motor Speedways.

First Atlanta Cup race: On July 31, 1960, Fireball Roberts started on the pole for the 1960 Dixie 300 in the John Hines owned No. 22 car. Roberts led 28 laps in the 1960 Pontiac, including the last one, to win the first Cup race held at Atlanta Motor Speedway. A 22-year old Richard Petty drove the soon-to-be famous No. 43 Petty Plymouth to a 20th place finish in that race as well.

2009 Kobalt Tools 500: Mark Martin put the No. 5 Kellogg's Chevrolet on the pole for the March 8, 2009 Kobalt Tools 500. He got into the wall around lap 215 (of 330) and finished 31st (14 laps down). Kurt Busch was the story in this event. He started 2nd in the No. 2 Miller Lite Dodge, led the most laps (234) and scored the win.

Last Atlanta Cup race: Martin Truex Jr. paced the qualifying session with a lap of 184.149 mph in the No. 1 Guitar Hero 5 Chevrolet to start on the pole for the September 6, 2009 Pep Boys Auto 500. He led the most laps (68 of 325) but lost the handling later in the race and finished 26th. Kasey Kahne, who started on the front row in 2nd with the No. 9 Budweiser Dodge, led 60 laps and took the victory.

Your fantasy game won't allow you to pick all track favorites so Mid-Pack Attack is here to help. A mid-packer may not win the race but has as good a shot at a top 15 finish as track favorites Carl Edwards, Jeff Gordon, Matt Kenseth, Jimmie Johnson and Tony Stewart. There were 46 cars on the preliminary entry list for this weekend's Cup race. The 43 drivers who qualify will be competing in front of 124,000 fans in the grandstands. Here are our picks for Sunday's Kobalt Tools 500 in Hampton, Georgia.

Mid-Pack picks

Kasey Kahne considers Atlanta Motor Speedway one of his favorite tracks on the Cup schedule. He should; since he has two wins (see 'Last Atlanta Cup race' above), one pole and seven top-10 finishes in 12 Sprint Cup starts. Kahne has an average finish of 17th place for those races but does better in the spring events (a 13.8). Last year, his finishes of 7th and 1st earned him the most championship points of all drivers entered this week. Coming off a 9th place at Las Vegas, he finds himself 23rd in the points. We feel after this weekend, Kahne will be down in the teens in the standings.

Another driver who is happy to be at Atlanta is Brian Vickers. He said this week: "Atlanta has always been one of my favorite tracks. It's fast and wide open, which really suits my driving style." In 13 Cup starts at AMS, he owns six top tens and a 17.5 average finish. Over the last 5 races, make that a 10.4 average. Vickers is one of the top drivers in NASCAR Statistics 'Green Flag Passing' category. He's passed 683 cars under green flag conditions during the last 10 Atlanta races. Vickers is a good choice for a fourth or fifth driver for Sunday's race.

Last week we said the Atlanta race would be the last one before we go back to our practice of avoiding top-15 drivers to pick mid-packers. That being said, this might be the last chance we get to pick Dale Earnhardt Jr. (15th in the points) for now. Among the drivers who have made all of the last ten starts at AMS, NASCAR Statistics shows Dale Jr. to be No. 1 in their "Quality Passes" (passing while running in the top 15) category. He's passed 352 times in the last ten Cup races. That's an average of 35.2 cars per race. The 2004 winner of this event has an average finish of 11.9 in 21 Atlanta starts. With finishes of 3rd, 11th, 11th and 17th in his last four races at the Georgia track, this would be a great week to put the No. 88 on your fantasy roster.

In eight Sprint Cup career starts at Atlanta Motor Speedway, Clint Bowyer has completed all but seven of the 2,609 laps contested and carries a 15.6 average finish. He finishes either in the 20's (four times) or 6th place (four times). Six seems to be a favorite number at AMS for the No. 33 (3+3) driver. So far this season, he has a 6.7 average finish for the first three races. There's a very good chance that he will maintain that average this weekend.